EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6307/31 50-day EMA / High Jan 24  
• RES 1: 0.6244 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6205 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6088 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Monday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is at 0.6307, the 50-day EMA. Gains are - for now - considered corrective.

European Equity futures are paring some of their losses, but overall they are some way short of Yesterday's big downside Opening Gaps on Tariffs Risk.

The Banking sector (SX7E) felt the brunt of it as Yields fell, but in Index could be in focus on the open, following the BNP beat this Morning, the most weighted within the index.

• Opening calls: Estox 50: +0.21%, Dax: +0.35%, CAC: -0.02%, FTSE -0.12%, SMI +0.37%.

GBP STIRs adjust to weakness in core global FI markets seen late yesterday and in Asia hours, after President Trump agreed to delay the imposition of tariffs on Canada (he did the same with Mexico earlier on Monday).

• BoE-dated OIS shows ~80bp of cuts through year-end, after pricing ~84bp of easing over that horizon yesterday.
• 24bp of cuts priced for this week’s BoE decision, with ~47.5bp of cuts showing through May.
• We look for 25bp cuts at both of those decisions, expect our full preview of this week’s meeting to be released later today.
• SONIA futures little changed to -5.0.
• December highs in SFIZ5 remain untested.
• The recent run of dovish repricing may have reached its limit, unless we get a fresh catalyst.
• We believe that more data is needed before we can give a meaningful view on monetary policy beyond the Bank’s May meeting.
• Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on cross-asset flows and tariff-related headlines.