EMISSIONS: EU End Of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rise On Equities, Coal Margin Gain

{EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising alongside equities as worries eased over US Federal Reserve independence and softer trade tensions. A stronger pullback in API 2 coal prices today could further support coal margins, thus improving gas-to-coal fuel switching dynamics.

• EUA DEC 25 up 3.63% at 66.73 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 2.66% at 47.94 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas MAY 25 down 0.5% at 34.07 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas MAY 25 down 0.7% at 83.43 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 2.8% at 5040
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained high at 0.61.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.74.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €10.78/t CO2e.
• The trend in ICE EUA futures remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Recent fresh cycle lows reinforce a bearish theme. The sell-off earlier this month resulted in a breach of €61.98, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has paved the way for an extension towards €56.76, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at €69.16.
• BNEF warns that the attempt to prioritise financial support for clean tech through funds raised from EU ETS could risk crashing carbon prices, it said.
• BNEF warns the European shipping sector could face up to €81.5bn in compliance penalties by 2050 under the FuelEU Maritime regulation if it fails to adopt low-carbon fuels at scale, it said.
• A new MSCI report highlights the carbon trading is gaining traction, with growing potential for international carbon markets and rising private-sector finance.