EMISSIONS: EU End Of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rise On EU Gas Gains
Apr-16 15:34
EUAs Dec25 are rising amid EU gas gains, with correlation between EUA-TTF tightening to the highest in almost one week. UKAs Dec25 are rangebound as market yet to find a clear direction with higher EUAs weighed against forecasts for high wind output.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 66.84 EUR/MT
- ICE UKA Dec25 up 0% at 47.45 GBP/MT
- TTF Gas MAY 25 up 3% at 35.425 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas MAY 25 up 3.3% at 87.11 GBp/therm
- EUAs aggregate open interest rose to 638k contracts as of April 15, the highest level since the March contract expiry.
- UKAs aggregate open interest rose to 55k contracts as of April 15, also the highest since March contract expiry.
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €65.98/ton CO2e, down 3.85% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €68.62/ton CO2e.
- The latest UK ETS auction cleared at £46.01/ton CO2e, the highest level since Dec 2024, and up 6.38% compared with the previous auction at £43.25/ton CO2e.
- The trend in ICE EUA futures remains bearish and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce this theme. The latest sell-off resulted in a breach of key support at €61.98, the Oct 9 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards €56.76, a Fibonacci projection. Recent gains are considered corrective. The 20-day EMA, at €66.69, has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at €69.75.
- Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the third consecutive week with net long positionings at the lowest the week to 27 December.
- Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange remained bullish since mid-March with net long positionings at an all-time high.
- WWF urged the EU to aim for full carbon neutrality by 2040 to align with its share of the global carbon budget, while warning the negative effect of using carbon offsets to reach target.
- Drax’s biomass generation in the UK could fall from the current 4% to near 2% of the country’s power mix and cut its emissions by 55% by 2030.
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US TSY FUTURES: Extending Highs
Mar-17 15:33
- Treasury futures have regained footing following this morning's post-data head-fake sell-off. Jun'25 10Y trades 110-29 +8.5) vs. 110-14 low post data, initial technical resistance well above at 111-25 (High Mar 11).
- Curves remain flatter with the short end holding steady: 2s10s -4.388 at 24.907, 5s30s -2.446 at 50.636. 10Y yld -.0481 at 4.2640%.
- Cross asset update: Bbg US$ index extending lows (BBDXY -4.57 at 1261.15), Gold attempting to rise above 3,000 again (+11.65 at 2995.81), West Texas Crude mildly higher +.21 at 67.39.
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.100%(ALLOT 23.21%)
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- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.100%(ALLOT 23.21%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 26.27% OF COMPETITIVES
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FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.205%(ALLOT 94.72%)
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- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.01% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 56.24% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.89
