EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall On EU Gas Losses
Apr-02 15:24
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are trending down alongside EU gas prices, with both carbon contracts falling nearly 3% from their intraday highs. The correlation between EUAs and TTF has tightened to a one-week high.
- EUA DEC 25 down 2.1% at 68.4 EUR/MT
- ICE UKA Dec25 down 1.3% at 45.88 GBP/MT
- TTF Gas MAY 25 down 3.2% at 41.1 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas MAY 25 down 3.7% at 98.86 GBp/therm
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period tightened to 0.61 from the 0.6 on the previous day.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.65.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent narrowed to €14.63/t CO2e from the €15.05/t CO2e in the previous day amid greater EUAs decline.
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €68.62/ton CO2e, down 3.83% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €71.35/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- The UKA ICE auction cleared at higher at £43.25/ton CO2e, compared with £44.55/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 19 March. More information to follow shortly.
- Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish last week with net long positionings at the lowest since 10 January, the latest COT data as of 28 March showed.
- Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange accumulated net long positions rose to an all-time high, the latest COT data as of 28 March showed.
- The EC opened a consultation on a new regulation that updates existing rules on monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of emissions for the aviation industry to facilitate the implementation of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (‘CORSIA’).
- India’s steel industry faces rising carbon costs under the EU CBAM, up to $116 per tonne by 2034, impacting 25% of India’s steel exports to Europe.
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FED FUNDS FUTURES: Post-Data Buying
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US DATA: ISM Mfg Prices “Surprise” Likely Smaller Than Survey Implied
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- Another reason why the weaker growth metrics in the ISM mfg survey are overshadowing the sharp rise in prices paid is that regional Fed surveys had already pointed to a similar result for price pressures, but it hadn’t been reflected in the typically narrow selection of responses.
- See the below chart, although note that it can give false flags such as short-lived spike in Apr 2024 so it would have been hard to have full conviction beforehand.
- In addition, Friday's MNI Chicago PMI also saw its price paid series leap 16.9 points to 77.1, its largest monthly increase since July 1957 for its highest level since August 2022.
