EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall On EU Gas Losses

Apr-02 15:24

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EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are trending down alongside EU gas prices, with both carbon contracts falling nearly...

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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly vs put

Mar-03 15:24

ERZ5 98.25/98.50/98.75c fly vs 97.3125p, sold the fly at 0.25 in 10k.

FED FUNDS FUTURES: Post-Data Buying

Mar-03 15:23
  • Following this morning's Block buying of 12,000 April'25 FF futures at 95.685, several rounds of buying post ISM reported, appr DV01 of $2M:
    • +15,000 FFJ5 at 95.685
    • +10,000 FFJ5 at 95.690
    • +11,000 FFK5 at 95.745
    • +13,000 FFM5 at 95.820

US DATA: ISM Mfg Prices “Surprise” Likely Smaller Than Survey Implied

Mar-03 15:17
  • Another reason why the weaker growth metrics in the ISM mfg survey are overshadowing the sharp rise in prices paid is that regional Fed surveys had already pointed to a similar result for price pressures, but it hadn’t been reflected in the typically narrow selection of responses.
  • See the below chart, although note that it can give false flags such as short-lived spike in Apr 2024 so it would have been hard to have full conviction beforehand.
  • In addition, Friday's MNI Chicago PMI also saw its price paid series leap 16.9 points to 77.1, its largest monthly increase since July 1957 for its highest level since August 2022.
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