EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise on EU Gas Gains
Mar-19 17:20
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are trending upward, moving in tandem with EU gas price movements. EUAs trading volume hit a four-day high and exceeded the 15-day moving average, suggesting a rising trading interest.
- EUA DEC 25 up 3% at 73.44 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 1.4% at 46.42 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 6.4% at 43.355 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas APR 25 up 6.2% at 106.2 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.2% at 5496
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period tightened to 0.65 from the 0.61 on the previous day.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained stable at 0.71.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent widened to €18.24/t CO2e from the €16.86/t CO2e in the previous day, amid stronger EUA gain.
- The trend outlook in ICE EUA futures is bearish, however, the contract has traded sharply higher today. This marks an extension of the recovery that started Mar 7. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average, at €73.37, would undermine a bullish theme and expose €77.73, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support and the bear trigger is at €66.78, the Mar 7 low.
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €71.35/ton CO2e, up 4.94% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €67.99/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- The UKA ICE auction cleared higher at £44.55/ton CO2e on the day, compared with £38.03/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 5 March according to ICE.
- EUA POSITIONING – Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the fifth consecutive week with net long positionings at the lowest since 10 January, the latest COT data as of 14 March showed.
- UKA POSITIONING – Speculator net long positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange remained stable compared with the prior week, the latest COT data as of 14 March showed.
- Rabobank has lowered its EUA price forecast for the third and fourth quarter of this year and for the first two quarters in 2026, it said in a note.
- The EU Commission will propose CBAM extension to downstream products in Q4 2025, and present further anti-circumvention strategy in H2 2025, it said in the latest European Steel and Metals Action Plan.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: BTP Piu Retail Orders Hit E5.6bln On First Day
Feb-17 17:16
- At the end of the first day, books on the retail-only Feb-33 BTP Piu transaction (ISIN: IT0005634792) were E5.6bln according to Reuters reporting of Bourse data.
- For comparison, first day sales for the March 2024 6-year BTP Valore launch were E6.44bln (35% of the eventual E18.3bln raised). Meanwhile, sales for the May 2024 6-year BTP Valore launch were E3.70bln (33% of the eventual E11.2bln raised).
- Assuming day 1 sales make up ~34% of the total BTP Piu issuance, this suggests E16.5bln will be raised across the week.
- The BTP Piu will form part of the BTP Valore family and will include an option for an early redemption after 4 years as well as a step-up coupon. The minimum coupon rates are 2.80% for years 1-4 and 3.60% for years 5-8.
- Unless there is an early close, books for the BTP Piu will close on Friday at 1300CET.
ECB: Holzmann Sees “Some” Probability Of March Cut, Markets At 98%
Feb-17 17:09
- ECB’s Holzmann, a pre-eminent hawk and with a voting role at the March meeting, has been reported on newswires as saying there’s “some” probability of a March rate cut.
- “Some” is at odds with the market where OIS has another 25bp cut as 98% priced.
- He goes on to add that decisions in favor of more cuts are “getting harder”.
- His comments are the closest to pushback on this market pricing ahead of the March decision just over 2 weeks away.
- See our weekly summary of ECB Speak published earlier today: https://media.marketnews.com/250217_Weekly_ECB_Speak_Wrap_3f23c8ea91.pdf
MNI EXCLUSIVE: ZEW President On Outlook Ahead Of German Election
Feb-17 17:03
ZEW president assesses Germany's economy ahead of this weekend's elections..-On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
