EMISSIONS: EU ETS Emissions In 2024 Cuts by 50% Since 2005

The S&P Global US services PMI saw a solid upward revision to 51.0 in the final February report, although activity still moderated after a solid January and particularly robust readings through May-Dec when it had averaged 54.6. The upcoming ISM services report will be watched to see if there’s a repeat of the job cuts being seen for the first time in three months. 

• S&P Global US Services PMI: 51.0 (cons & flash 49.7) in Feb after 52.9 in Jan
• S&P Global US Composite PMI: 51.6 (cons & flash 50.4) in Feb after 52.7 in Jan - whilst better than first thought, it's the lowest since Apr 2024 and points to a sizeable slowdown in real GDP growth. 

S&P Global press release highlights (full release here): 

• “US service sector activity continued to expand during February, but at a reduced pace as new business growth slowed again.
• Weaker demand growth subsequently weighed on service sector expectations and, amid some worries and uncertainty over federal government policies related to trade and budgets, confidence in the outlook fell in February.
• At the same time, job cuts were recorded for the first time in three months.
• Cost inflation also picked up in February as suppliers raised prices, although competitive pressures meant that service providers increased their own charges only modestly.”

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 0.8385 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.8385 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.8375 Intraday hugh     
• PRICE: 0.8371 @ 14:51 GMT Mar 5 
• SUP 1: 0.8322 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a near-term bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range

A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally over the past 2 trading sessions signals scope for an extension towards 0.8385 and 0.8419, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8322, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.

• Treasury futures holding near recent session highs, some two way flow after slightly higher than expected Services & Composite PMI data.
• The Jun'25 10Y contract trades +5.5 at 111-13.5 after vs. 111-15 high, still well inside technicals: resistance above at 112-01/02 (High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing), support below at 110-23/110-00 (Low Feb 28 / High Feb 7).
• Curves still steeper - but off highs: 2s10s +3.348 at 28.306, 5s30s +4.128 at 53.183.