POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE, Nordic Feb Power Rise
CWE front-month power prices are trading higher, with France leading gains, supported by forecasts for colder weather for longer and gains in EU gas prices. Nordic March power is extending Friday’s gains, supported by a weakened hydro balance in the region and gains in neighbouring markets.
- Nordic Base Power MAR 25 up 6.7% at 45.5 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power MAR 25 up 2.9% at 91.14 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 0.8% at 107.11 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.7% at 82.48 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 up 2% at 54.325 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has been holding onto gains this morning as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs. US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are pulling back on Monday following US President Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on several nations and warnings that he will impose similar tariffs on the EU. Downside is limited by forecasts for colder-for-longer weather, an upward revision in EU manufacturing PMI data and gains in EU gas prices.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared lower at €80.39/ton CO2e, compared with the previous auction at €81.57/ton CO2e on 30 January.
- The Eurozone manufacturing PMI saw a five tenth upward revision to 46.6 (vs 46.1 flash, 45.1 prior), driven by a notable upward revision in Germany to 45.0 (vs 44.1 flash).
- If the UK included refineries and chemical producers in its upcoming CBAM, companies like Ineos could face a five-fold increase in carbon costs, according to BNEF.
- The German Parliament last week passed a legislation that new solar PV systems will no longer receive EEG compensation at times of negative power prices.
- EdF’s new 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor will be offline two days longer until 5 February 23:00CET, after which it will resume test runs with 100MW.
- Scotland’s offshore wind industry risks losing momentum if developers fail to secure more contracts in the upcoming UK renewables subsidy auction, Scotland's Deputy First Minister said.
- The Noordzeker consortium has signed an agreement with Tennet for the offshore grid connection of the 2GW IJmuiden Ver Alpha wind farm in the Netherlands.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
