POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE, Nordic March Power Fall
CWE front-month power futures have extended gains throughout the morning with sharper losses in EU gas prices, that also pushed EUAs into negative territory. Nordic March power is edging lower with losses in neighbouring markets weighed against cooler weather and a small downward revision in the region’s hydro balances.
- Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 0.7% at 43.95 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power MAR 25 down 3.2% at 87.05 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 3% at 102.05 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 80.54 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 3.2% at 52.055 EUR/MWh
- TTF extends the earlier decline to reverse some of the gains seen late last week as the market weighs the impact of rising US trade tensions with China. Recent near normal temperatures and storage withdrawals are easing some pressure on winter supplies.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances resumed losses, weighed on by sharper declines in the European gas market. The potential for US tariffs on Europe is further adding to the downside.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared lower at €79.06/ton CO2e, compared with €80.39/ton CO2e in the previous auction.
- The Danish government announced late last week to delay the implementation of the CO2 tax on fisheries until 2030.
- Poland is likely to fall short of the EU’s target to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels according to the OECD Economic Survey on Poland.
- Power demand in Germany, France and the UK is expected to decline by 7% on the month in February to total 149GW. Residual load, in contrast, is forecast to rise on the month amid expectations of low wind output according to BNEF.
- Uniper’s 1.05GW Datteln 4 hard-coal power plant is scheduled to return on Wednesday with output expected to ramp up from midday local time.
- French nuclear output is forecast to average 45.1GW in February, which would be 2.4% above 2024 levels but down by 14% on the month due to lower fleet availability according to BNEF.
- Belgium’s new coalition government is considering raising the country’s nuclear generation capacity by 4GW as part of the coalition agreement.
- The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 will halt over 5-7 February due to valve problems in an unplanned outage.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
