POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: France Feb Power Tracks 18% Weekly Gain
Jan-31 12:11
France February power is tracking a weekly net increase of almost 18% with support from lower nuclear availability, colder, less windy weather forecasts and gains in the energy complex. The German equivalent is tracking a weekly net gain of almost 15%. Nordic front-month power is rallying today amid forecasts for colder weather and a downward revision to the region’s hydro balances, as well as gains in neighbouring markets.
- Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 12.1% at 48 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power FEB 25 up 4.8% at 123.30 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 3.7% at 131.56 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.8% at 83.36 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 up 2.6% at 52.8 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month has extended gains throughout the morning with cooler weather with low wind this weekend and reduced Norwegian pipeline flows. Concerns for low storage and summer refill requirements continues to drive prices higher.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are tracking a weekly net increase of around 2% with support from sharp gains in the German power market and EU gas market. Colder, less windy weather conditions are expected to spur heating demand and fossil-fuel generation in the next week.
- The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared higher at €81.11/ton CO2e, compared with €78.43/ton CO2e in the previous auction.
- EdF has raised its nuclear output targets for 2025 and 2026, while setting the target for 2027.
- France nuclear safety authority ASNR has given the greenlight to EdF to increase power tests above the current 25% at the utility’s new 1.62GW Flamanville 3 reactor.
- The planned 4,000km power subsea interconnector between the UK and Morocco needs political support in order to be feasible, Xlinks First Ltd said.
- The EIB will loan Poland’s PGE €400mn to build its 1.5GW Baltica 2 offshore wind farm, with commissioning for the project set for 2027.
- Iberdrola was leading the PPA market in 2024, signing PPAs for 1.251GW of capacity in 2024, up by 38% on the year.
- Denmark announced to halt all ongoing offshore wind tenders after the unsuccessful last tender round, and plans to introduce subsidies for future tender rounds.
- Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Minister of Energy Terje Aasland have introduced a new electricity plan featuring fixed-price agreements, VAT reductions, and a halt on new submarine power connections until 2029.
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US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs
Dec-31 19:18
- Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
- Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
- No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
- Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher
Dec-31 18:47
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
- Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
- Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
- Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming
Dec-31 18:36
- Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
