EQUITIES: EU outperforms, Bank at a 14yrs high. US NVIDIA Earnings Tonight

• Treasuries display all the hallmarks of a sizeable risk-off move in the US tech sell-off prompted by the success of China’s DeepSeek, with only a modest paring of gains so far as US desks filter in.
• Cash yields are 8.5-12bp lower from Friday’s close, with declines led by 7s.
• TYH5 trades at 109-08+ (+ 26+) off a recent high of 109-12 on extremely strong volumes of 885k.
• It’s a bullish short-term cycle with the earlier high having tested the 50-day EMA at 109-12+ after which lies 109-31 (Dec 18 high). A clear break is required here to strengthen a bullish theme.
• The medium-term trend remains lower however, with support at 108-00 (Jan 16 low).
• Today’s docket is headlined by double coupon issuance with both 2s and 5s. Last month’s auctions saw 2s on the screws whilst 5s stopped through (just, by 0.2bp) for a second consecutive month. Indirect takes increased for both, with a particularly notable climb for 2s.
• Data: Chicago Fed national account Dec (0830ET), New home sales Dec (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg (1030ET)
• Coupon issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y note 91282CMH1 (1130ET), US Tsy $72B 5Y note - 91282CMG3 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $72B 26W bill auctions (1130ET), $84B 13W bill auctions (1300ET)
• Looking ahead to Wednesday's FOMC decision, see the MNI Fed Preview here, with the analyst addendum to follow today. 

OEH5 117/116.75ps, sold at 11 in 13k.

• In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis contract has started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg. Key resistance is unchanged at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
• A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from Friday’s high, is considered corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up that highlights a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5086.38, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, the 1.500 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing.