POWER: EU PPA Prices on Track to Drop on Month, 8% Higher On Year
Mar-14 11:42
The average price of European PPAs over 1-13 March is on track to drop from February, however, prices are around 8% higher compared to the average across March 2024, according to data from Pexapark. Closer in, PPA prices rose on 13 March amid gains in EU emissions, while prices could continue climbing amid elevated EU ETS, German power and TTF.
- EU PPA prices averaged around €49.14/MWh over 1-13 March, down from €51.72/MWh across February and lower than €52.17/MWh in January.
- However, this is higher than the PPA prices in March 2024, which average about €45.62/MWh.
- On the quarter, PPA prices have averaged around €51.01/MWh so far in 1Q25 compared to €44.36/MWh over the entire 1Q24.
- On the day, prices moved up slightly to €49.48/MWh on 13 March from €49.19/MWh on 12 March. This is the highest price since 3 March at €50.04/MWh.
- PPA prices in the UK, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, France, Poland, Nordics and Italy all rose. The sharpest increases were recorded in Poland and the UK.
- Solar PPA costs rose by 0.61% on the day, while offshore increased by 1.07% and onshore by 0.77%.
- Germany Base Power APR 25 up 2.9% at 81.08 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 71.32 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 0.8% at 42.4 EUR/MWh
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Bounce Highlights A Potential Reversal
Feb-12 11:40
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a 2.00 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA - at $72.21, despite being pierced, has provided firm support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery also signals a stronger reversal of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 bear leg. Sights are on $75.18, the Feb 3 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at $70.43, the Feb 6 low.
EURIBOR: Put Condor buyer
Feb-12 11:28
ERM5 97.8125/97.75/97.6875/97.5625 broken p condor, bought for half in 8k.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI & Revisions, Fed Chair Powell in House
Feb-12 11:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 12-Feb 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (2.2%, --)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 2.9%)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.2%, 3.1%)
- 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% revised, --)
- 12-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell House Financial Services testimony
- 12-Feb 1130 US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction
- 12-Feb 1200 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 12-Feb 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CMM0)
- 12-Feb 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$86.7B, -$94.8B)
- 12-Feb 1705 Fed Gov Waller on Stablecoins (text, Q&A)
