TARIFFS: EU Trade Commissioner-Work Underway On Tariff Response

Apr-03 15:26

European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic releases a statement regarding US tariffs. Select comments below:

  • "EU will respond in a calm, carefully phased, and above all, unified way, as we calibrate our response."
  • "have agreed with my U.S. counterparts to hold a video call tomorrow to explore the best way to move forward from this unnecessary and painful phase,"
  • [If no deal possible] We are prepared to implement firm, impactful but proportionate countermeasures. The analytical work to guide our proposals is well underway.
  • "response will complement the EU rebalancing measures already announced [regarding steel & aluminium]...consultation for these countermeasures has now finished, and I will discuss the next step with EU Trade Ministers on 7 April, with a vote expected two days later."
  • "we will use this situation to further diversify our trade partnerships around the world"

Initial headlines following this statement claimed that Sefcovic said the EU was "ready with countermeasures", implying that a retaliatory response to the 2 April reciprocal tariffs could be imminent. 

  • The wording of the statement shows that this is not the case. Sefcovic confirms "analytical work" on countermeasures is underway, but that the countermeasures to be discussed 7 April and voted on 9 April relate to the steel and aluminium tariffs imposed by the US in mid-March.  

Historical bullets

US: House Task Force On "Monetary Policy/Treasury Market Resilience" Underway

Mar-04 15:23

The new House of Representatives special "Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity" has gavelled in for a first hearing, entitled: "Examining Monetary Policy and Economic Opportunity" LIVESTREAM

  • The committee memorandum reads: "This hearing will explore the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy toolkit, analyzing how these tools influence Americans’ economic well-being by examining the impact on income, spending, investment, and savings. The hearing will focus on factors that drove the recent high inflation period, looking forward to the Federal Reserve’s five-year review, as well as explore the effect that certain regulations have on financial market functioning and monetary policy transmission."
  • The hearing includes testimony from experts from the Brookings Institution, Monetary Macro LLC, the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute, and the Economic Security Project.
  • Reuters notes: "The hearing comes as the Fed is embarking on a review of its operating framework, a blueprint for executing policy to meet its congressional dual mandate to foster both price stability and maximum employment."
  • Politico notes that the chair of the panel, Rep Frank Lucas (R-OK) wants to "air it all out" when it comes to the Federal Reserve's guiding principle: the dual mandate of balancing price stability and promoting maximum employment.
  • Lucas said: "A substantial number of my Financial Services Committee colleagues and the chairman want to discuss that issue. Is there really a dual mandate? And how does that affect the primary mandate of price stability?"

EQUITIES: Large Volumes are going through on the push lower in Equities

Mar-04 15:20
  • Some really big Volumes going through in the ESH5, only seeing 12k-15k cumulative clips, as long bails out.
  • The Aussie comes under renewed pressured against the JPY and the NZD.
  • Next support is AUDNZD is seen towards 1.1030, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep/Nov range.

US TSY FUTURES: Extending Session High

Mar-04 15:17
  • Risk-off tone gains momentum as stocks continue to sell off (SPX eminis -91.0 at 5770.0).
  • The Jun'25 10Y contract trades up to 112-00 high, nearing technical resistance at 112-02 (1.382 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing).
  • Curve steepening shifts into high gear as projected rate cut pricing rises: 2s10s +5.552 at 25.691, 5s30s +6.450 at 55.134.
  • Cross asset update: Bbg US$ index weaker but off lows (BBDXY -2.42 at 1290.70), Gold gaining (2908.89 +16.20), Crude continues to decline (WTI -1.41 at 66.96).

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