EMISSIONS: EU-UK ETS Linkage May Undermine UK’s Economic Growth

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• This morning, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold their first call since Ukraine accepted the terms of a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement.
• Trump told reporters during a tour of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts yesterday that Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit Washington in the “not too distant future.”
• UK Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington today, aiming to strike a deal to avoid Trump’s trade measures.
• Governor Michelle Bowman confirmed in a statement that President Trump has nominated her to serve as the Fed’s Vice Chair of Supervision.
• Senate Budget Committee Republicans will meet the Senate Parliamentarian in the coming weeks for a preliminary assessment on using a "current policy baseline" to score making permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts (TCJA) at $0.
• Israeli airstrikes in Gaza have killed more than 400 people, puncturing an uneasy two-month ceasefire. The foreign minister of Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed the group "will not "dial down" their military action in the Red Sea in response to US pressure.
• Chart of the Day: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has produced a model suggesting that Trump’s trade agenda will increase inflation and slow growth. 

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

• GBP1.062500bln had been on offer.
• This leaves GBP18.944bln of the gilt in issue.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Time To Hold Fire

• The Riksbank is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25% on Thursday, with increased domestic inflationary pressures driving a hawkish adjustment in analyst and market expectations since the January decision.
• The March decision includes an updated Monetary Policy Report and rate path projection. We think a flat path at 2.25% throughout the forecast horizon is most likely. Although the January and February inflation outcomes will have a net hawkish impact on the rate path, there are offsetting factors from the details of the reports, alongside soft activity signals to start the year and a much stronger-than-expected exchange rate.
• Additionally, we don’t think there is much to be gained from a communication standpoint in shifting the rate path up a few basis points.
• The analyst previews MNI has seen unanimously expect the Riksbank to remain on hold at 2.25%. Of those who expressed a view on the March MPR rate path, most see a horizontal trajectory at 2.25% as the most likely outcome (in line with MNI’s view), with slight upside risks.
• Most of a hawkish Riksbank pivot is already priced into markets. As such, we view the risks to the March decision for SEK FX as quite balanced.