STIR: Euribor Futures Drifting Lower, Within Yesterday's Ranges
Euribor futures are -0.5 to +2.0 ticks through the blues, drifting away from session highs over the last 90 minutes. Markets are awaiting a potential announcement from US President Trump on reciprocal tariffs, while assessing the fallout of his call with Putin on the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
- ECB-dated OIS are up to 1.5bps more hawkish through 2025, currently pricing 77bps of cuts through year-end. This is down from 78bps at yesterday’s close and 83bps at the end of Tuesday (largely a function of yesterday's US CPI report).
- Overnight, Bundesbank President Nagel warned against cutting rates too hastily as rates approach neutral. He cited Bundesbank estimates of 1.80-2.50%, wider (and higher) than the heavily caveated 1.75-2.25% range presented by the ECB last week.
- Cipollone (0840GMT) and Nagel (1700GMT) are scheduled to speak today. Today’s regional data calendar includes December industrial production. Consensus expects -0.6% M/M (vs 0.2% prior), but MNI’s tracking points to downside risks.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.429 | -23.6 |
| Apr-25 | 2.267 | -39.8 |
| Jun-25 | 2.098 | -56.8 |
| Jul-25 | 2.035 | -63.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.958 | -70.7 |
| Oct-25 | 1.936 | -72.9 |
| Dec-25 | 1.897 | -76.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.898 | -76.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.661 - High Jan 10
- PRICE: $29.631 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
STIR: 91bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning, with the aforementioned French political headlines supporting EGBs. ECB-dated OIS price 94bps of easing through year-end (vs 91bps at yesterday's close). 25bp cuts remain almost fully priced through the January and March meetings, though OIS assigns a flatter policy rate path from Q2 onwards.
- Euribor futures are +2.0 to +3.5 ticks through the blues. Building on yesterday afternoon’s recovery from multi-month lows, ERZ6 is now back above the Nov 6 low of 97.685 at typing.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with only Italian industrial production due on the data front. We will be tracking comments from ECB hawk Holzmann, who was scheduled to speak from 0800GMT/0900CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.678 | -24.0 |
| Mar-25 | 2.430 | -48.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.282 | -63.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.144 | -77.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.096 | -82.2 |
| Sep-25 | 2.025 | -89.3 |
| Oct-25 | 2.006 | -91.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.979 | -93.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.4677 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4369 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.4348/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4197 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4348, the 20-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4197, the 50-day EMA.
