EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 162.32 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.64/161.27 High Dec 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 158.08 @ 17:05 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
EURJPY remains soft, despite the recovery off the weekly lows into the Wednesday high. Recent weakness marks an extension of the current bear cycle. A number of retracement points have been cleared and most recently, 157.87, 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 161.27, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
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EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 166.69 High Oct 31
- PRICE: 165.47 @ 17:04 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 163.96/162.96 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
The EURJPY trend set-up is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Initial support to watch lies at 163.96, the 20-day EMA. Recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 168.01, the Jul 26 high.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Carry Over Puts
Option desks reported better SOFR/Treasury put option volumes for the most part Monday, carry over from overnight as accounts continued to hedge or cover downside risk ahead of Tuesday's Presidential election and Thursday's FOMC rate announcement. Underlying futures remain firmer after midmorning gains trimmed. Projected rate cuts into early 2025 have receded from this morning's highs (*): Nov'24 cumulative at -24.6bp, Dec'24 -45.3bp (-45.8bp), Jan'25 -59.2bp (-60.3bp), Mar'25 -75.6bp (-77.1bp).
- SOFR Options
- +16,000 2QX4 96.00/96.25 3x1 put spds, 0.5 net/1 leg over ref 96.375
- +5,000 2QZ4 95.50 puts, 2.0 vs. 96.325/0.10%
- 4,000 SFRX4 95.37 puts
- Block, 10,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75 put spds 7.0 ref 95.945
- 4,000 2QX4 96.43/96.75 1x2 call spds ref 96.355
- 3,000 0QZ4 95.25/95.87/96.25 broken put flys ref 96.345
- 1,500 0QF5 95.75/96.12 put spds vs. SFRF5 95.50 puts
- 3,800 3QZ4 96.75 calls 4.0 ref 96.32
- 8,575 0QX4 95.56/95.62 put spds ref 95.64
- 12,000 SFRX4 95.56/95.62 put spds12,850 SFRZ4 95.50/95.62 put spds ref 95.63
- Treasury Options:
- -4,250 TYF4 109/112.5 strangles, 123
- total over 51,000 wk2 TY 109 13-14 (expire this Friday)
- 5,000 TYZ4 110.75/112.5 1x2 call spds, 18 ref 110-07.5
- Block, +10,000 TYZ4 112.5/113.5 call spds, 10
- Block, +9,300 FVZ4 105.25/106.25 put spds, 10.5
- 9,000 FVZ4 105.5/106.25 put spds ref 107-10.5
- over 13,500 USZ4 109 puts, 7 last, open interest 35,809 coming into the session
- 7,700 Monday wkly 10Y 112/113 call spds, expire Mon. Nov 11
- 6,000 wk2 TY 111.5 calls, 20 ref 110-15.5
- over 8,400 FVZ4 106 puts, 12 last
- 5,000 FVZ4 106.75 puts
- 9,000 FVZ4 109 calls, 7.5 last
- 2,000 TYZ4 106/107.5/109 put trees ref 110-16
- over 4,800 FVZ4 106 puts, 12 ref 107-08
- 3,500 TYZ4 108.5/111.5 strangles
- 2,000 wk2 TY 114.5/115 put spds
- over 8,300 TYZ4 108 puts, 15 last ref 110-13
- 8,200 TYZ4 109 puts
USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 153.88 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 152.05 @ 17:01 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 151.46 Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 150.73/148.99 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has traded through 153.40, 61.8% of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 148.99, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 150.73.
