LNG: European Prices Lower But Market Remains Vulnerable To Supply Disruptions

• Thailand to Sell 40 Billion Thb of 182-Days Bills
• MAS to Sell S$15.9 Billion 25-Day Bills
• MAS to Sell S$22.5 Billion 83-Day Bills
• Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 90D Bills (PH0000058463)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 181D Bills (PH0000058935)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 363D Bills (PH0000059818)
• Bank of Korea to Sell 1 Trillion Won 91-Day Bonds

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11  
• PRICE: 140.70 @ 15:52 GMT Jan 24
• SUP 1: 140.00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: 139.38 - 2.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.87- 3.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing    

A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes the 140.00 psychological handle next. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. 

In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed with an uptick, +1 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished mildly stronger. 

• US stock futures have re-opened lower ahead of key earnings week, with the S&P 500 down ~0.50% and the Nasdaq down ~1%.
• “In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said he ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods coming into the US, which will be raised to 50% in a week. Oil, gold, coffee and flowers top the list of exports, according to Colombia’s  tax authorities.” (per BBG)
• On Friday, the S&P Global US composite PMI surprisingly fell in the January flash, showing its lowest since April, after 55.4 in December, which marked a 32-month high. Inflationary pressures saw a four-month high which helped limit the dovish reaction from the headline services miss.
• Meanwhile, U.Mich long-run inflation expectations were trimmed in the final January release from what had been a particularly sharp increase to the highest since 2008. 3.2% is still elevated though, having twice in the past three months exceeded what had been a typical 2.9-3.1% range since mid-2021.
• Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
• Today, the local calendar will see Coincident/Leading Index alongside an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-15.5 YR.