LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Feb | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Feb | 1000 | EU | GDP (p) |
| 17-Feb | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Feb | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipolllone in Eurogroup meeting | |
| 18-Feb | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 18-Feb | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/Expectations Index |
| 18-Feb | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN meeting | |
| 18-Feb | 1400 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in MNI Connect event on Balance Sheet |
| 19-Feb | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19-Feb | 1000 | EU | Labour costs |
| 20-Feb | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Feb | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Feb | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21-Feb | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21-Feb | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Feb | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Feb | 900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 21-Feb | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Feb | 1430 | EU | ECB's Lane Speech at FIW-Research Conference |
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BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.469 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 116.700/117.090 High Jan 14 / 9
- PRICE: 116.360 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 116.280 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break and subsequent follow through strengthens the downtrend and sights are on 116.210 next, the Jul 12 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.469, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0356 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0297 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 132.78 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 131.09/71/132.57 High Jan 14 / 9
- PRICE: 130.43 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 130.58/57 Low Nov 6 ‘24 and key support (cont) / Intraday low
- SUP 2 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 3: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number
The trend in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme. Sights are on the 130.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is at 132.78, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
