LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 30-May | 0700 | DE | Retail Sales / Import/Export Prices |
| 30-May | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 0900 | EU | M3 |
| 30-May | 0900 | IT | GDP (f) |
| 30-May | 0900 | DE | State-level CPI |
| 30-May | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30-May | 1100 | IT | PPI |
| 30-May | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
| 02-Jun | 0815 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02-Jun | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02-Jun | 0850 | FR | Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 02-Jun | 0855 | DE | Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 02-Jun | 0900 | EU | Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Jun | 1000 | EU | HICP (p) / Unemployment |
| 04-Jun | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04-Jun | 0815 | ES | Final Services / Composite PMI |
| 04-Jun | 0845 | IT | Final Services / Composite PMI |
| 04-Jun | 0850 | FR | Final Services / Composite PMI |
| 04-Jun | 0855 | DE | Final Services / Composite PMI |
| 04-Jun | 0900 | EU | Final Services / Composite PMI |
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JGBS: Modestly Richer, BoJ Decision Tomorrow
JGB futures are modestly stronger, +7 compared to the settlement levels.
- Outside of the previously outlined IP and Retail Sales data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- The BoJ is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% tomorrow. This decision comes amid a complicated economic backdrop: while Tokyo’s core inflation rose to 3.4% in April — its highest level in two years, driven by higher food prices and reduced energy subsidies — risks to economic growth are increasing.
- Given the significant shifts in external conditions, particularly the US tariff policy changes since the last MPM in March, the BoJ is likely to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see stance at this meeting. (See MNI BoJ Preview here)
- Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session. Today’s US calendar will see ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps richer (5-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bp higher at 1.312%.
- Swap rates are 1-3bps lower. Swap spreads are mixed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will also see Jibun Bank PMI Mfg and Consumer Confidence data.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.735 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 107.485 @ 05:52 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 107.387 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Sights are on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of 107.775 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 107.387, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29
- PRICE: 1.3391 @ 06:10 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 1.3280 Low Apr 28
- SUP 2: 1.3202 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3041/3002 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.
