MNI EXCLUSIVE: Ex-Fed Governor On Central Bank Independence

• RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.4308 @ 16:42 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains intact, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position.  However, the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger, is at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.   

Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 4.59mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. However, they fell 1.14mn at Cushing and there was a product stock drawdown of 1.71mn barrels for gasoline and 2.15mn for distillate. The official EIA data is out later on Wednesday.

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 
• PRICE: 0.6359 @ 16:40 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 0.6308 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and Monday’s gains reinforce this theme. Sights are on the key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Feb 3. On the downside, a move below key short-term support at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat. First support to watch is 0.6259, the Mar 11 low.