US TSY OPTIONS: Expensive 10Y Iron Condor

• Treasuries bounce slightly after the Dec FOMC minutes release - not a big reaction in rates though most officials saw upside risk to inflation gaining.
• Tsys had already scaled back midday support in the lead-up to the release, TYH5 currently -3 at 108-02.5, 10Y yield +.0164 at 4.7014%. Curves climbing steeper again: 2s10s +2.268 at 41.240, 5s30s +1.753 at 46.381.

• mni: fomc minutes: at or near time to slow pace of cuts
• fed min: high uncertainty calls for gradual approach
• FED: higher likelihood of persistent elevated inflation
• fed: trade, immigration shifts risks slowing disinflation

The FOMC in December said it was "at or near the point" at which it would be best to slow the pace of interest rate cuts, citing rising upside risks to inflation and high uncertainty over potential changes in trade and immigration policy. 

• Did several or more participants say they could support a hold at the December meeting? "The vast majority of participants viewed it as appropriate to lower the target range... Some participants stated that there was merit in keeping the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged." 
• Is this sentence from the November minutes altered to reflect a different number of participants: "Almost all members agreed that the risks to achieving the Committee's employment and inflation goals were roughly in balance." NO
• What proportion of the Committee incorporated assumptions about future government policy in their projections? "A number of participants indicated that they incorporated placeholder assumptions to one degree or another into their projections. Other participants indicated that they did not incorporate such assumptions, and a few participants did not indicate whether they incorporated such assumptions."
• Did the FOMC discuss ending QT at an upcoming meeting? NO. The SOMA manager noted market participants expect QT to end in June 2025, slight shift later.