OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb20 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Feb-19 15:30
* EUR/USD: $1.0315(E916mln), $1.0350(E895mln), $1.0370(E590mln), $1.0400-10(E2.9bln), $1.0425-40(E...
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MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +31
Jan-20 15:30
- MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +31
- BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY OVERALL INDICATOR -1.18
- BOC: CONSUMERS SEE INFLATION AT 3.89% NOW, 3.05% IN 1 YEAR
CANADA: BoC Business and Consumer Surveys Ahead - 1030ET
Jan-20 15:19
- GoC yields are 0.7-1.5bp lower on the day, with declines led by the front end in the broader FI response to WSJ sources suggesting President-elect Trump won’t immediately unveil tariffs.
- USDCAD meanwhile has seen heavy declines, including a low of 1.4262 (latest 1.4293) that has now pierced multiple support levels. The latest was 1.4280 (Jan 6 low), opening 1.4226 (50-day EMA).
- Up next, the BoC publishes its influential business and consumer surveys for Q4 (BOS/CSCE) at 1030ET.
- The Q3 releases saw a notable moderation in inflation expectations, including BOS 2Y inflation falling 50bps to 2.5% after two quarters at 3% for what had been the very top of the 1-3% target range.
- We’ll also watch latest developments for firms hiring expectations and excess capacity.
- Note that the Q3 surveys were collected 8-30th and 6th-23rd of the mid-month and so a similar convention should at least capture initial reactions to the US presidential election result.
- BoC-dated OIS prices 19-20bp of cuts for next week’s BoC decision.
EURUSD TECHS: Pierces Trendline Resistance
Jan-20 15:09
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
- RES 2: 1.0463 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 1.0417 @ 15:09 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0095 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish. For now, the latest recovery appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0338, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0403, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0463. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low.
