US TSYS: Extraordinary Measures And Cash Look Sufficient To Head Off X-Date

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18 
• PRICE: 0.6307 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD has recovered from its latest low. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.      

StatCan published a preliminary estimate that wholesale sales ex petroleum, products, other hydrocarbons, oilseed & grain rose 0.4% M/M in February.

• While still a prelim estimate, and a pullback from 1.2% in January, this would still mean elevated growth in wholesale sales on a 3M/3M annualized basis (7.4%, after 8.1%,), and the highest Y/Y rate (using SA series as a comparison) in 10 months (3.1%).
• The reading "reflects higher sales in the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector", per StatCan.
• Friday's GDP release brings expectations for a pickup in January growth to 0.3% M/M vs 0.2% prior - the chart below shows that after January's pickup in both wholesale and manufacturing sales, activity is seen to have weakened in February.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.48 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 26 
• SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 160.43 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support 

The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and a recent sell-off appears corrective. This has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.43, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.