COMMODITIES: Fade in WTI Futures Wednesday Confirms Presence of Bear Threat

The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The latest strong impulsive climb has resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open 80.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.89, a key short-term support. Gold is trading higher today. The yellow metal has pierced resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for an extension higher near-term. This would expose $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, first support to watch is $2653.4, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

• WTI Crude down $1.34 or -1.72% at $76.48
• Natural Gas down $0.07 or -1.77% at $3.878
• Gold spot up $14.5 or +0.54% at $2724.01
• Copper down $8.5 or -1.95% at $428.25
• Silver down $0.07 or -0.22% at $30.4855
• Platinum down $8.37 or -0.88% at $938.87

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is holding on to its gains. The focus is on a climb towards 5215.87, a Fibonacci projection point. Key short-term support has been defined at 4931.00, the Jan 13 low. A break of this level would be bearish. S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 125.48 pts or +0.32% at 39027.98 and the TOPIX ended 2.23 pts higher or +0.08% at 2713.5.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 1.755 pts or -0.05% at 3242.623 and the HANG SENG ended 180.74 pts higher or +0.91% at 20106.55.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 24.6 pts or -0.12% at 20967.06, FTSE 100 higher by 11.59 pts or +0.14% at 8532.26, CAC 40 up 7.73 pts or +0.1% at 7741.23 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.57 pts or -0.05% at 5161.87.
• Dow Jones mini up 138 pts or +0.32% at 43835, S&P 500 mini up 21.5 pts or +0.36% at 6055, NASDAQ mini up 89.5 pts or +0.41% at 21685.

• Spread set 4.25% Sep-39 gilt +4.00bp (Guidance was +4.00/+4.25bps)
• Size: GBP Benchmark (MNI expect GBP5.0-6.5bln)
• Books in excess of GBP115bln (inc JLN interest of GBP7bln)
• Expected Settlement Date: 22-January-2025 (T+1)
• ISIN: GB00BQC82D08
• Joint Leads: DB (B&D / DM) / JPM / MS / Nomura / RBC CM
• Timing: Books to close at 10:00GMT, today’s business

From market source