MNI EXCLUSIVE: February Flash PMIs Key To April / June ECB Pricing
With a 25bp ECB cut in March essentially fully priced, this morning’s February flash PMIs will be important in shaping consensus for the April and June gatherings. ECB-dated OIS currently price 55bps of cumulative easing through June (i.e. more than fully pricing 2x25bp cuts across the next three gatherings).
- Although the ECB has expressed confidence in the medium-term inflation outlook, price components will be keenly watched after the January survey reported the highest level of output charge inflation in five months. Naturally, the impact of US tariff uncertainty will also be in focus.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues.
- The French PMI is due at 0815GMT, before Germany at 0830GMT and the Eurozone-wide reading at 0900GMT.
- ECBspeak is scheduled from the dovish Centeno and Chief Economist Lane.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.423 | -24.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.281 | -38.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.110 | -55.7 |
| Jul-25 | 2.057 | -61.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.985 | -68.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.962 | -70.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.925 | -74.2 |
| Feb-26 | 1.922 | -74.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6262 @ 07:40 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. A resumption of the downtrend would open 0.6100. The next resistance to watch is 0.6331, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: Just Under 65bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End, Reeves Due
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch more hawkish at the open, with core global FI markets below yesterday’s highs and Bund futures off their early London peak.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more hawkish across ’25 contracts.
- SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is currently speaking on BBG TV, nothing to move markets thus far, as she reemphasises the government’s strapline surrounding driving economic growth and the need to stick to the fiscal rules.
- She will speak to CEOs later in the day.
- PSNB was higher than expected in Dec.
- Little else of note on the UK calendar today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.477 | -22.3 |
Mar-25 | 4.433 | -26.7 |
May-25 | 4.297 | -40.3 |
Jun-25 | 4.244 | -45.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.155 | -54.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.130 | -57.0 |
Nov-25 | 4.079 | -62.1 |
Dec-25 | 4.062 | -63.8 |
