US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

• RES 4: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 1.2968 High Jul 19 
• RES 2: 1.2863/2938 High Aug 1 / High Jul 24
• RES 1: 1.2798/1.2810 20-day EMA / Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2805 @ 16:04 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1:1.2665 Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2510 Low May 14 

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and this has resulted in a print above resistance around the 20-day EMA, at 1.2798. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger short-term retracement and open 1.2863 initially, the Aug 1 high. Current gains are considered corrective, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the recent Aug low of 1.2665. A break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Jul 17.

RRP usage recedes to $324.494B from $328.641B Monday -- compares to $286.660B on Wednesday, Aug 7 -- the lowest since mid-May 2021. Number of counterparties slips to 62 from 64 prior.

Vice President Kamala Harris retains her slight edge in the New York Times national polling average, but public opinion firms are divided on which candidate is benefited by the underlying political environment.

• Ipsos reports that the fundamentals still favour Trump: “Americans continue to report the main issues facing the country are economic in nature. A plurality of Americans consistently identify inflation as the most pressing problem facing the nation, with concerns about immigration, democracy, and other issues taking a backseat. On this front, Trump maintains a perceived advantage over Harris, with voters expressing greater confidence in his economic policies.”
• Roll Call reports that the race is a toss-up, but Harris has the edge: “…all things being equal, Harris has a slight advantage over Trump. She is likely to be preferred among the so-called double haters, those who disliked both Trump and Biden, and undecided voters are more likely to be attracted to the Democrats’ optimism than the Republicans’ darkness. Those key voters are also more likely to find Harris and Walz more personally appealing than Trump and his running-mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.”
• Note: Harris is expected to require a 2-3% win in the popular vote to win the election due to Trump’s strength in swing states.

Figure 1: National Polling Average

Source: New York Times