ECB: Final Question on ECB versus Fed Easing Expectations
- Final Q: It seems the ECB will be diverging again from the Fed. What are the main differences here and there and at the both sides of the trade war that could allow you to keep lower interest rates and not Mr. Powell?
- A: We look at the euro area, not in isolated form, because we are open to the rest of the world, and more open than many other economies, including the US. But we look at that we are focused on in the Euro Area, focused on our price stability mandate. The other central banks in the world have different mandate. They have a dual mandate for some of them. And clearly the economic, macro economy, the macro economic situation, is different, and they will be on the receiving end of a different nature of shocks from the shocks that we will be receiving. So that leads us, necessarily, to drawing different conclusions.
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 10Y Volatility Buying
- +15,000 TYM5 107.5/113.5 strangles, 35 vs. 110-18.5/0.05% at 0917:53ET
- Additionally, +9,000 TYM5 108/113 strangles, 45 vs. 110-19/0.05% on screen
UK: BOE MNI Instant Answer questions for March 2025 meet
The BOE policy decision is due March 20, with the answers to below questions published at midday:
1. Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for cut of 50bp or greater?
3. Number of members voting for 25bp cut?
4. Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent)
5. Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” to removing “policy restraint being appropriate” from their Statement?
6. In the guidance, alongside a “gradual” approach to removing policy restraint, did the MPC use “careful”?
7. Did the MPC again say Bank Rate is likely to “remain restrictive for sufficiently long”?
8. Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?
9. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the February policy statement?
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls
US Cash opening calls, set for a steady open, SPX should be close to Yesterday's mid range, as the Emini also trades at Yesterday's mid pre Cash open.
- Calls: SPX: 5,659.3 (-0.3%); DJIA: 41,799 (-0.1%/-43pts); NDX: 19,708.3 (-0.5%).
