US DATA: Final Services PMI As Expected, 31-Month High For Job Creation
The final January releases for the S&P Global US services and composite PMIs were broadly as expecte...
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread vs Put
ERZ5 98.12/98.50cs vs ERZ5 97.50p, bought the cs for -1 (receive) in 5k.
STIR: Trump Tariff Headlines See Euribor Futures Off Lows
ECB-dated OIS now showing 101bp of cuts through year-end after trading below 100bp earlier in the session.
- Euribor futures off lows, contracts last 3.0-5.0 lower on the day.
- Hawkish adjustments seen on the day largely stem from the firmer-than-expected German CPI data.
- Moves away from session extremes come after incoming U.S. President Trump pushed back against the idea of softer tariffs (touted by Washington Post sources earlier).
- Market continues to hold the idea that deeper tariffs would promote a more dovish ECB reaction function, as the Bank would become more worried about the growth outlook.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.674 | -24.6 |
Mar-25 | 2.402 | -51.7 |
Apr-25 | 2.215 | -70.5 |
Jun-25 | 2.080 | -84.0 |
Jul-25 | 2.031 | -88.9 |
Sep-25 | 1.962 | -95.7 |
Oct-25 | 1.930 | -98.9 |
Dec-25 | 1.910 | -100.9 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6041.75/6107.50 Intraday high / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 6039.00 @ 14:34 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present despite the most recent gains. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key S/T support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
