FINANCIALS: Final Terms - BFCM EU1b 10Y SNP
* FT: MS+127 * Books > 4.5bn up from 2.5bn initial * IPT:MS+160 * FV: MS+130 - on the curve * Exp. R...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar:Regional Fed Data, Home Sales, 2Y/5Y Note Sales
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 27-Jan 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-.12, -.06)
- 27-Jan 1000 New Home Sales (664k, 672k), MoM (5.9%, 6.6%)
- 27-Jan 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (3.4, -3.0)
- 27-Jan 1130 US Tsy $69B 2Y note (91282CMH1) & $72B 26W bill auctions
- 27-Jan 1300 US Tsy $72B 5Y note (91282CMG3) & $84B 13W bill auctions
US TSY FUTURES: Net Longs Added In Most Contracts On Friday
OI data points to net long setting in all contracts outside of UXY (which saw modest net short cover) during Friday’s rally.
- The largest DV01 equivalent moves came in TY & US futures, with a net ~$8mn of DV01 equivalent exposure added across the curve.
| 24-Jan-25 | 23-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,221,630 | 4,203,828 | +17,802 | +656,461 |
FV | 6,253,662 | 6,216,042 | +37,620 | +1,568,566 |
TY | 4,818,301 | 4,765,056 | +53,245 | +3,429,365 |
UXY | 2,281,021 | 2,285,725 | -4,704 | -413,296 |
US | 1,953,502 | 1,932,318 | +21,184 | +2,670,724 |
WN | 1,783,162 | 1,782,445 | +717 | +136,628 |
|
| Total | +125,864 | +8,048,450 |
SEK: EURSEK Pierces Trendline Resistance, Riksbank Expected To Cut This Week
Ongoing DeepSeek-driven risk off has weighed on the risk-sensitive Scandi currencies, with EURSEK up 0.35% and EURNOK up 0.55% at typing. EURSEK has pierced trendline resistance drawn from the November 21 high, exposing the 38.2% retracement of the September to November bull leg at 11.5329 on the upside.
- The Riksbank decision headlines this week’s Swedish calendar. Although a 25bp cut is widely expected by analysts (21/22 of those surveyed by BBG expect such a decision), it is only ~80% implied by markets.
- Although this suggests scope for some short-term SEK weakness in the event of a 25bp cut, the dovish signal will likely be countered by cautious policy statement and press conference language.
- There is a heavy Swedish data calendar this week too, with the flash Q4 GDP indicator, household lending, retail sales and Economic Tendency Indicator all scheduled. These will be key inputs into the Riksbank’s assessment of the economy and the impact of past rate cuts, but will play a more prominent role in March, where an updated MPR and rate path will be presented.
