Gilts move away from session highs after the firmer-than-expected flash services UK PMI data, limiting a recovery from early session lows.
- Futures last +11 at 91.74 (91.23-91 range)
- Initial support and resistance located at 91.07/93.01, with the bearish technical theme in the contract intact.
- Yields 2-3bp lower across the curve, front end outperforms.
- 2s10s and 5s30s continue to respect psychological resistance levels at 50bp & 100bp, respectively.
- 10s ~2bp tighter to Bunds on the day. Little to explain the outperformance ahead of a raft of UK risk events, with gilts outperforming
- Comments from BoE’s Bailey are due this evening (18:00 GMT).
- A little further out, Wednesday will bring the release of the latest round of CPI data, the Spring Statement, gilt remit and OBR projections, while Friday will see the release of retail sales and final Q4 GDP.
- Local headline flow has focused on continued spending cuts in Whitehall and Chancellor Reeves stressing adherence to the fiscal rules, leaving spending cuts front and centre ahead of Wednesday.
- GBP STIRs have followed swings in the long end.
- BoE-dated OIS now shows 15bp of cuts for May, 19bp through June, 30bp through August and 46bp through year-end. Contracts are little changed to a couple of bp more dovish on the day.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.0.