POLAND: Finance Ministry Holds T-Bill Auction, MPC Meets This Week
- The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week after another "placeholder" meeting before the publication of the next Inflation Report in March. Most Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members seem to believe that rate cuts could start in 2H25 at the earliest, with Governor Adam Glapinski standing by his relatively hawkish views. The Governor will hold his regular press conference on Thursday afternoon.
- The Finance Ministry is looking to sell up to PLN3bn of 294-day bills today. Poland resumed sales of short-term securities in January for the first time since the COVID-10 pandemic, citing requests from financial market participants, and is looking to hold these auctions on a regular basis. Separately, the Finance Ministry said in its monthly debt issuance plan that it will offer PLN5bn-10bn of OK0127, PS0130, WZ0330 and DS1034 bonds each on Feb 12, Feb 19 and Feb 26.
- The latest IBRIS opinion poll for Onet showed that Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski remained the clear frontrunner to win the upcoming presidential election. Survey results indicated that if the election was held today, Civic Coalition's Trzaskowski would secure 37.3% of the vote, holding a comfortable lead over Law and Justice's Karol Nawrocki, who would also advance to the run-off with 23.9% of the vote.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be released at the top of the hour. Consensus looks for an uptick to 48.5 from 48.2 registered in December.
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
