MEXICO: Finance Ministry on 2026 Public Deficit
Apr-02 11:51
- No fireworks should be expected at the President’s daily press briefing on Wednesday, given that it falls before the US ‘liberation day’ announcement and the comprehensive response expected from the Mexican administration on Thursday.
- Mexico’s Finance Ministry released its preliminary forecast for the 2026 budget and expectations for economic growth, oil output and exports, as well as inflation. Mexico sees the 2025 public deficit will be 3.9% to 4% of GDP, in line with a prior estimate of 3.9%, and it sees 2026 public deficit of between 3.2% - 3.5% of GDP.
- At 1130 Mexico City time, Mexico is expected to sell MXN1.5b 2028 floating IPAB bonds, MXN1.5B of 2030 floating IPAB bonds and also MXN1.3b of 2032 floating IPAB bonds.
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: S&P Mfg PMIs, ISMs, Fed Speak
Mar-03 11:40
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 3-Mar 0945 S&P Global Mfg PMI (51.6, 51.6)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Mfg (50.9, 50.8)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Prices Paid (54.9, 56.3)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Orders (55.1, 54.6)
- 3-Mar 1000 ISM Employment (50.3, 50.1)
- 3-Mar 1000 Construction Spending MoM (0.5%, -0.1%)
- 3-Mar 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
- 3-Mar 1235 StL Fed Musalem on economy, mon-pol (text, Q&A)
BUNDS: Testing the 132.00 figure
Mar-03 11:40
- Some momentum selling in Bund as it breaks below 132.00, the 30yr Buxl part of the curve still leads.
- Buxl targets 126.10, the February low, and a break through could open to 124.84, the 2025 low.
- Bund is now eyeing the 131.84 gap.
- The German 5/30s sees resistance at 60.512, the 28/07/22 high.
EGB OPTIONS: RXJ5 130.50/130.00 Put Spread Sold
Mar-03 11:35
RXJ5 130.50/130.00 put spread, 20K sold at 13.5 vs. 132.25 9% delta.
