FRANCE DATA: Flash Q4 GDP Tenth Lower Than Expected, Following Q3 Olympic Boost

Greece is due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E0.5bln in first round operations, in-line with last week. 

• Today, Greece will sell E500mln of the new 13-week Apr 4, 2025 GTB.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

• RES 4: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 3: 5027.00 High Dec 13      
• RES 2: 5002.00 High Dec 18 
• RES 1: 4939.00 High Dec 19         
• PRICE: 4881.00 @ Close Dec 30  
• SUP 1: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support       
• SUP 2: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle      
• SUP 3: 4775.00 Low Nov 29  
• SUP 4: 4727.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support  

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00, the Dec 20 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 4800.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 4939.00, the Dec 19 high.

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 0.8316/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27 
• PRICE: 0.8290 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 31
• SUP 1: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support 
• SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

EURGBP resistance at 0.8317, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced - but has so far failed to trigger a sharper move higher. A clear breach of the EMA would undermine the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.