AUTOMOTIVE: Forvia (EOFP B1/BB-/BB+[N] SnrUnsec): 26s Called

• Looking at the change in private regular AWE (which came in at 6.22%Y/Y in the 3-months to December, a little lower than the 6.29% pencilled in by the BOE's MPR), we think that the slight downside surprise was broadly equally attributable to both the fresh December data and a downward revision to November.
• There was no revision to the high 6.68%Y/Y for the single month October print, but the single month November print was revised down to 5.90%Y/Y from 6.12%Y/Y (leaving the 3-month November print at 5.89%Y/Y, down from 5.96%). The single month print for December was 6.09%Y/Y.
• However, looking at the PAYE RTI wage data, there was a more meaningful revision and continued downside momentum. The flash estimate for January 2025 came in at 5.01%Y/Y - that is the lowest since April 2022. December was revised down to 5.20%Y/Y from 5.41%. Like in the AWE data there is a temporary spike higher in the October print.
• As can be seen from the chart below, the HMRC PAYE RTI median pay growth continues to trend downwards.

RXM5 127.50/126.50/125.50p fly, bought for 5.5 in 3k.

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2996.9 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: $2913.8 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 18
• SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12  
• SUP 2: $2833.2 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4  
• SUP 4: $2756.5 - 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2833.2, the 20-day EMA.