EUROPEAN INFLATION: France Inflation Surprises 2 Tenths to the Downside

Some light put flow in early London trade:

• TYH5 108.00 puts paper paid 0-16 on 2.0K, lifting a small offer to leave the market 0-15/17 on the follow.
• TYJ5 106.00 puts ~3.8K lots given at 0-10.

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6162.28 High Jan 24             
• PRICE: 6103.25 @ 07:27 GMT Jan 29 
• SUP 1: 6013.75 50-day EMA         
• SUP 2: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / 27
• SUP 3: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

The S&P E-Minis contract remains above Monday’s low. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the recent sharp pullback appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

• The DMO has announced that the upcoming 10-year syndication (new issue maturing 7 March 2035 with ISIN GB00BT7J0027 and long first coupong) will launch in the W/C 7 March.
• This is in line with our expectations - we had pencilled in 11 February for the launch date since the FQ4 calendar was announced (the DMO had previously announced it would be a 10-year gilt to be held in February and the W/C 10 February was the obvious choice).
• There is GBP8.5bln in the DMO's medium-dated gilt syndication bucket, but we see potential to upside the deal to as much as GBP10.0bln (so pencil in a GBP8.5-10.0bln range).