RENEWABLES: France Morning Renewable Forecast

Trump’s apparent focus on imposing tariffs on Mexico & Canada in the coming weeks helps promote some modest EGB spread widening to Bunds today, although the major 10-Year cross-market differentials are within 1bp of yesterday’s closing level. 

• Bund futures have pulled back from overnight highs, limiting the spread widening as the risk-off moves fade from extremes.
• 10-Year BTP/Bunds closed below 110bp, with cycle closing lows located at 106.4bp.
• Meanwhile, 10-Year OAT/Bunds last ~77.5bp, with French political and fiscal risks helping keep that spread above 75bp.
• Supply pressure is set to come via the French and Lithuanian syndications, with German green supply also scheduled.

• The EUR and the Pound are falling back to where they fell Overnight post Trump's Tariffs headline, both EURUSD and Cable are back to their overnight intraday lows.
• Not Yet seeing any broader moves versus G10s at least.
• Small support in Cable comes at 1.2222, and a push all the way down to ~1.2186 would reverse Yesterday's WSJ story on Tariffs.
• EURUSD would need to drift to 1.0320 to reverse that move.

• EUR Benchmark 5Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2030) MS+70 Area
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
• EUR Benchmark 15Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2040) MS+145 Area
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
• Issuer: Lithuania Government International Bond (LITHUN)
• Settlement: Jan. 28, 2025
• Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), BofA, JPM
• Co-Lead (no books): SEB Lithuania
• Investor presentation.
• Timing: May price today.

Details as per Bloomberg