RENEWABLES: France Morning Renewable Forecast
Feb-20 08:59
See the latest French renewables forecast for base-load hours from this morning for the next seven days. In contrast to Germany, French wind will be between 10-12% load factors over 26-27 February (Wed-Thur) – which could lead to day-ahead prices to be at a premium to Germany.
French: Wind for 21-28 February
- 21 February: 11.17GW
- 22 February: 7.63GW
- 23 February: 5.75GW
- 24 February: 10.15GW
- 25 February: 8.30GW
- 26 February: 2.28GW
- 27 February: 2.92GW
- 28 February: 8.39GW
French: Solar for 21-28 February
- 21 February: 2.42GW
- 22 February: 1.36GW
- 23 February: 2.15GW
- 24 February: 1.32GW
- 25 February: 1.13GW
- 26 February: 2.47GW
- 27 February: 2.42GW
28 February: 2.90GW
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Historical bullets
EGBS: Spreads To Bunds Marginally Wider
Jan-21 08:58
Trump’s apparent focus on imposing tariffs on Mexico & Canada in the coming weeks helps promote some modest EGB spread widening to Bunds today, although the major 10-Year cross-market differentials are within 1bp of yesterday’s closing level.
- Bund futures have pulled back from overnight highs, limiting the spread widening as the risk-off moves fade from extremes.
- 10-Year BTP/Bunds closed below 110bp, with cycle closing lows located at 106.4bp.
- Meanwhile, 10-Year OAT/Bunds last ~77.5bp, with French political and fiscal risks helping keep that spread above 75bp.
- Supply pressure is set to come via the French and Lithuanian syndications, with German green supply also scheduled.
USD: EUR and the Pound are testing their intraday lows
Jan-21 08:50
- The EUR and the Pound are falling back to where they fell Overnight post Trump's Tariffs headline, both EURUSD and Cable are back to their overnight intraday lows.
- Not Yet seeing any broader moves versus G10s at least.
- Small support in Cable comes at 1.2222, and a push all the way down to ~1.2186 would reverse Yesterday's WSJ story on Tariffs.
- EURUSD would need to drift to 1.0320 to reverse that move.
EGB SYNDICATION: 5/15-year LITHUN EMTN: Guidance
Jan-21 08:40
- EUR Benchmark 5Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2030) MS+70 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
- EUR Benchmark 15Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2040) MS+145 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
- Issuer: Lithuania Government International Bond (LITHUN)
- Settlement: Jan. 28, 2025
- Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), BofA, JPM
- Co-Lead (no books): SEB Lithuania
- Investor presentation.
- Timing: May price today.
Details as per Bloomberg
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