POWER: French Spot Power to Edge Down
The French spot power index is expected to edge lower with forecasts for milder weather expected to curb power demand, shrugging off forecasts for lower wind output. French front-month power is trading lower with forecasts for slightly milder weather and losses in the energy complex weighed against lower nuclear availability.
- France Base Power MAR 25 down 1.9% at 88.24 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 80.55 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 1.6% at 52.955 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France decreased to 78% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, down from 88% on Monday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 reactor is scheduled to resume test runs on 5 February 23:00CET with output at 100MW.
- The 1.31GW Nogent 2 nuclear reactor had an unplanned outage on Tuesday morning that is scheduled until 6 February 23:00CET.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures will remain below normal or in line with normal during the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 5.9C on Wednesday, up from 2.5C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 4.5C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 67.94GW on Wednesday, down from 69.46GW on Tuesday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to decline to 2.78GW during base load on Wednesday, down from 3.72GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to decline to 61.73GWh/h on Wednesday, down from 64.11GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been revised lower to end at -2.57TWh on 18 February, compared with -2.38TWh a day earlier.
- The unplanned curtailment at the 2GW IFA power link is scheduled to end on Tuesday 12:00GMT.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
