POWER: French Spot Power to Fall
The French spot power index is expected to extend losses with forecasts for higher wind output and lower demand. French front-month power is seen to rise, once trading, with support from front-week contracts amid colder weather and low wind output.
- France Base Power APR 25 closed up 0.3% at 57.66 EUR/MWh on 5 March.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 68.7 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 1.5% at 42.13 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France was stable at 77% of capacity as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- French nuclear generation is forecast to average 48.78GW on Friday, up from 48.56GW on Thursday, Reuters data showed.
- Planned maintenance at 915MW Cruas 3 has been shortened by five days to end at 12 March. The reactor came offline on 4 August.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggests mean temperatures will be above normal until 11 March, before falling below the average until 16 March, after which temperatures will be milder again.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 11.1C on Friday, up from 9.5C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 7C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 54.89GW on Friday, down from 56.9GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to increase to 9.33GW during base load on Friday, up from 8.54GW on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast edge down to 7.92GW during peak load on Friday, down from 8.6GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to decline to 41.11GWh/h on Friday, down from 44.02GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been broadly unchanged on the day to end at -3.79TWh on 20 March.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: SFRZ5/Z6 Sold
SFRZ5/Z6 4K given at -0.5.
GILTS: Weaker On Canadian Tariff Reprieve
Gilts sell off at the open, adjusting to Canada’s short-term tariff reprieve that has been covered in detail elsewhere.
- Futures as low as 92.67 before a recovery to 92.80.
- The recent corrective bullish cycle in the contract extended yesterday.
- Initial support and resistance located at the 20-day EMA (92.11) and yesterday’s high (93.54), respectively.
- Yields 1.5-3.0bp higher, curve bear steepens.
- GBP STIRs still operate around pre-gilt open levels, ~80bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end.
- The DMO will come to market with GBP4.25bln of the 4.375 Mar-30 gilt this morning.
- Little else of note on the UK calendar, which will leave focus on cross-asset cues and tariff-related headlines.
- Our BoE preview will be published later today.
SILVER TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $31.737 - High Jan 30
- PRICE: $31.479 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: $29.704/28.748 - Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Silver continues to trade at its recent highs. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Support to watch is $29.704, the Jan 27 low, and $28.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.
