UKRAINE: French Spox-Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy Could Visit US Again Shortly

• In FX, today’s gap lower and fresh cycle low in EURUSD highlights a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and attention is on 1.0138, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Clearance of this level would open 1.0031, the 2.00 projection. Initial resistance is at 1.0308, today’s intraday high and a gap low on the daily chart.
• The latest pullback in GBPUSD highlights a bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note too that resistance at 1.2506, the 50-day EMA, capped recent gains, reinforcing bearish conditions. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance is 1.2523, the Jan 27 high.
• The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

OI data points to a mix of net short setting and long cover in SOFR futures on Friday, with the only outright net positioning swing of any note coming via net short setting in SFRM5 (~15K, which accounted for less than 1.5% of outstanding OI).