TARIFFS: FT: Trump Administration To Soften Tariffs For Key Automaker Inputs

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18 
• PRICE: 0.6272 @ 16:56 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A short-term bullish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch lies at 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bear threat. First support lies at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.      

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.51 @ 16:55 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
• SUP 2: 160.28 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support 

The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.28, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.    

The advance estimate of Canadian manufacturing sales shows a 0.2% M/M nominal decline in February, led by falls in food / petroleum and coal products, per StatCan.

• If confirmed, it would mark the weakest reading / first decline (in nominal terms) since September.
• Recall that the prior figure (+1.7% M/M) reflected a strong rise in motor vehicle and primary metals sales, and though real sales rose by just 0.9%, the latter should mean a decent contribution from industry to January GDP (out Friday; consensus is +0.3% M/M after +0.2%).
• However - pending prelim wholesale sales data out this Wednesday - industry in February may have proven sequentially weaker, and comes against a backdrop of uncertainty and volatility amid a nascent US-Canada trade war.