UKRAINE: FT-US Cuts Off Intelligence Sharing w/Ukraine

Mar-05 12:17

The FT is reporting that the United States has cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine in what would prove a major blow to Kyiv's ability to counter Russia's invasion and hit targets within the Russian Federation. FT: "US intelligence co-operation has been essential for Ukraine’s ability to identify and strike Russian military targets. Two officials confirmed that Washington had frozen intelligence channels with Kyiv. But one of the officials said the US was still sharing intelligence on Russia and Ukraine with its closest allies, including the UK."

  • Late on 4 March, the Daily Mail reported that the UK had been barred from sharing some intelligence information with Ukraine. "...all UK intelligence agencies and military outlets also received an order expressly forbidding the sharing of US-generated intelligence, previously known as 'Rel UKR' - short for Releasable to Ukraine'...the Mail has learnt the top-level security classification has now been removed by the United States pending further notification...The ban affects the likes of the UK's GCHQ, the spy agencies and intelligence branches of the Ministry of Defence."
  • On top of the halt in military and financial aid to Ukraine, the cutting off of intelligence provision will make it even harder for Ukrainian armed forces to resist Russia's advances in the Donbas, and for the country's defence apparatus to obstruct Russian missile and drone attacks on military, energy, and civilian infrastructure. 

Historical bullets

EGBS: Bund Futures Pierce Earlier Session Highs

Feb-03 12:15

Bund futures have pierced earlier session highs of 133.26, now +76 today at 133.28. Little in the way of fresh headline flow seen, with NY desks starting to filter in and assess the weekend’s tariff-related developments.

  • Next resistance in Bund futures is the Jan 3 high at 133.48
  • The German curve continues to bull steepen, with 2-year yields now almost 9bps lower today.
  • The BTP/Bund spread has widened 4bps to above 113bps, with the intraday recovery in European equities showing signs of stalling.
  • Alongside trade-related headline flow, regional participants continue to await the ECB’s seasonally adjusted January flash inflation data.

EURIBOR: OI Data Points To Mix Of Net Long Setting and Net Short Cover Friday

Feb-03 12:07

OI data points to a mix of net long setting and net short cover in Euribor futures on Friday, with the EUR short-end rallying on the softer-than-expected French and German state-level flash inflation readings. 

  • The largest net OI swing was seen in the whites (-26.6k), with more modest moves seen in the rest of the strip.
  • Indicative net short cover was observed in H5, M5 and Z5 contracts, with light net long setting seen in U5. 

 

 31/01/202530/01/2025Daily OI Change Daily OI Change In Packs
ERH5553,447560,714-7,267Whites-26,561
ERM5735,364745,031-9,667Reds-6,419
ERU5516,879514,947+1,932Greens -4,516
ERZ5655,616667,175-11,559Blues+4,383
ERH6412,436406,614+5,822  
ERM6343,631346,728-3,097  
ERU6261,077264,177-3,100  
ERZ6292,740298,784-6,044  
ERH7154,087154,852-765  
ERM7123,882121,591+2,291  
ERU795,69397,372-1,679  
ERZ7119,667124,030-4,363  
ERH854,98754,013+974  
ERM843,86142,121+1,740  
ERU829,64828,009+1,639  
ERZ843,66243,632+30  

STIR: SONIA FIX - 03/02/25

Feb-03 11:58
SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE 
1M4.48650-0.0317
3M4.45900-0.0163
6M4.36110-0.0251
12M4.22150-0.0399

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