FOREX: FX Exchange traded Roll pace
Mar-14 08:12
FX Exchange traded roll pace, these should be all but done by Today, expiry is on Monday. * EUR: 75...
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STIR: Euribor Futures Extend Session Lows Alongside Bunds
Feb-12 08:09
Euribor futures are once again being dragged lower by core EGBs, amid another day of solid sovereign supply and buoyant European equities.
- Futures are are -1.5 to -3.0 ticks through the blues at typing, extending session lows. ERZ5 has closed last Monday’s tariff-induced gap higher, currently at 98.015.
- ECB-dated OIS price 80.5bps of easing through year-end, down from 83bps at yesterday’s close.
- A 25bp cut remains essentially fully priced through March (24bps of cuts priced), while OIS price a ~70% implied probability of 25bp cuts at each of the April and June decisions.
- Today’s regional data calendar is light, with only Italian IP due. ECB Executive Board member Elderson speaks at an MNI Webcast at 1000GMT on “Climate Change: Impact on Monetary Policy & Bank Supervision”.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.428 | -23.7 |
| Apr-25 | 2.252 | -41.2 |
| Jun-25 | 2.083 | -58.1 |
| Jul-25 | 2.012 | -65.2 |
| Sep-25 | 1.923 | -74.1 |
| Oct-25 | 1.902 | -76.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.861 | -80.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.859 | -80.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
CROSS ASSET: Cash Equities spike to record highs, Bond Futures fall
Feb-12 08:09
- Long end Buxl (supply) Is leading Bund lower here and some selling interest is going on the Equity Cash, although futures are still short of their record high, Cash Equities are gapping to new all time record high.
- Banking index (SX7E) targets 175.41 next, May's 2011 high, now at 172.00.
- As already noted multiple times, next downside target in Bund is at 132.34.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
Feb-12 08:05
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7
- PRICE: $31.902 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: $30.814 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Key resistance in Silver at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.900, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
