FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY

WTI futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open $83.58, the Jul 5 high. On the downside, a return to bearish price action would expose key support at $71.67, the Aug 5 low. Gold is holding on to its latest gains. Recent weakness appears to be corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Note that the yellow metal has recently pierced support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2386.6. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, May 3 low and a key support. Attention is on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.

• WTI Crude up $0.54 or +0.69% at $78.9
• Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.61% at $2.161
• Gold spot up $9.64 or +0.39% at $2475.76
• Copper up $2.25 or +0.55% at $410.6
• Silver up $0.03 or +0.12% at $27.891
• Platinum down $1.84 or -0.2% at $940.01

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest climb appears to be a correction - for now. The sell-off between Aug 1 - 5, reinforced the bearish condition. A key support at 4846.00, the Apr 19 low, has been cleared. This highlights a stronger reversal and opens 4478.81 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4873.36, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 4777.62, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains in S&P E-Minis are - for now - considered corrective. However, yesterday’s strong rally delivered a print above the 50-day EMA, at 5453.80. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme and instead signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 5579.35, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 5120.00, the Aug 5 low.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 209.92 pts or +0.58% at 36442.43 and the TOPIX ended 28.35 pts higher or +1.11% at 2581.9.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 17.292 pts or -0.6% at 2850.654 and the HANG SENG ended 60.7 pts lower or -0.35% at 17113.36.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 72.52 pts or +0.41% at 17883.98, FTSE 100 higher by 36.56 pts or +0.44% at 8271.44, CAC 40 up 49.53 pts or +0.68% at 7325.4 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 27.5 pts or +0.59% at 4722.42.
• Dow Jones mini up 37 pts or +0.09% at 39926, S&P 500 mini down 0.75 pts or -0.01% at 5458, NASDAQ mini down 21 pts or -0.11% at 19084.75.

EU Bank Synth trade:

• SX7E (16th Aug) 135, bought the put again for 0.50 in 19.6k total now (100% Del).

Recall that we have Option expiry Friday, which can always provide some Gamma Vol at expiry.

In notional terms US:

• SPX: 1.23T vs 1.15T Monday.
• NDX: 89.01bn vs 86.4bn.
• Amazon: 13.45bn vs 12.65bn.
• Apple: 21.26bn vs 20.29bn.

• SX5E: 103.22bn vs 98.9bn.
• SX7E: 3.42bn vs 3.17bn.
• CAC: 4.87bn vs 4.92bn.
• DAX: 16.85bn vs 15.02bn.
• FTSE: 9.91bn vs 9.61bn.