EM ASIA CREDIT: FY Results: Globe Telecom (GLOPM, NR) - Positive for spreads

Headline CPI rose 2.3% y/y (estimate +2.2%) in November versus +2.1% in October. Trimmed mean CPI rose 3.2% y/y versus +3.5% in October.

• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across contracts after the data.
• A 25bp rate cut is back to being more than fully priced by April (110%), with the probability of a February cut standing at 61%.
• Before the data, the likelihood of a 25bp cut in April had slipped to 98%, with the February cut probability at 57%.
• For additional context, 32bps of easing was priced for April just a week ago.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

Nov CPI was mixed, headline a touch above expectations at 2.3%y/y (2.2% forecast), but core (trimmed mean) eased to 3.2% from 3.5%y/y (more details to follow). AUD/USD is down a touch, last just under 0.6225. Prior to the data we were above 0.6240. In the bond space, futures are 3-4bps stronger, while OIS is 2-4bps softer.  

November headline CPI inflation picked up 0.2pp to 2.3% y/y, while the trimmed mean eased 0.3pp to 3.2% y/y, which has been unaffected by state & federal electricity rebates. More details to follow. See ABS press release here.