NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Falls
Feb-13 16:24
TTF front month saw significant declines today, under pressure by the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war and as countries push for the EU to relax gas storage targets, with Germany reportedly requesting an exemption from storage targets this year.
- TTF MAR 25 down 8.2% at 51.1€/MWh
- President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
- Talks of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal may pressure TTF in the near-term, but are likely to have a neutral long-term impact, Platts said, with little likelihood of resuming Russia-EU flows.
- Germany is requesting to be exempt from the EU’s gas storage filling targets this year, representatives stated in a meeting of the Gas Coordination Group, according to Bloomberg.
- Cold temperatures are forecast for NW and central Europe until mid next week before turning milder.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back down at 318.6mcm/d today due to unplanned “process problems” reducing capacity at Troll and Kristin, Gassco shows.
- European gas storage withdrawals are above normal again as stores fall to 47.24% full on Feb. 11, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.7%.
- Ukraine is set to increase its gas imports by a further 10% on Thursday to around 25 million cubic meters according to transmission data.
- LNG loading disruptions from Western Australia due to category 5 Tropical Cyclone Zelia are bullish for JKM because Japanese importers will seek short-notice replacement cargoes, Platts said.
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SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Ready To Be Concluded And Implemented, Blinken
Jan-14 16:08
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, has confirmed that a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostage deal is "ready to be concluded and implemented" if Hamas accepts the conditions of the framework.
- Blinken says: "We believe the Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration in Gaza after a ceasefire deal," adding that an "interim security mission would be made up of forces from partner nations and vetted Palestinian personnel."
- Blinken notes that the Biden administration, "will hand off plan for post-war Gaza to the Trump administration to carry forward."
- Blinken's remarks are consistent with recent comments from US officials and Qatari mediators suggesting a ceasefire deal is closer than it has been in months, however, a final deal appears to hinge on Hamas approval, which in turn depends on how credible Hamas leadership deems a proposed Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. As noted in earlier bullets (ISRAEL: WSJ-Israel, Hamas Finalising Gaza Deal, Could Come This Afternoon) there is some domestic uncertainty on the Israeli side, "in the form of the requirement for any deal to be approved by Israel's security cabinet and the full gov't."
- The Jerusalem Post reported a short time ago: "No final answer was given from Hamas regarding a hostage deal, an Israeli official [said]."
- A Qatari statement earlier today read: "We have overcome the major differences. This is the closest point we have been to a deal over the past months,"
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