AMERICAS GASOLINE: Gasoline Tankers Head to US West Coast

SFIU5 96.35/96.65/96.80c fly, bought for 4 in 25k.

• Core CPI was clearly far stronger than expected in Jan at 0.446% M/M sa (MNI unrounded median 0.30, av 0.29) which was only partially offset by recent downward revisions in Q4 with 0.210% M/M in Dec (from 0.225), 0.29% in Nov (from 0.31) and 0.266% in Oct (from 0.28%).
• The main upward revisions to SA core CPI M/Ms came in June/July.
• The three-month rate accelerated to 3.9% from a downward revised 3.1 (from 3.3) in Dec, its highest since April.
• The six-month rate accelerated to 3.7% from a hardly revised 3.14% (from 3.19%) in Dec, its highest since May.
• The Y/Y, which is based on NSA (and therefore unrevised) data surprisingly inched up from 3.24% Y/Y to 3.26% Y/Y (we’d seen an average estimate of 3.15%).

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 109-10/110-00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-08 @ 13:41 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 108-00 Low Jan 16   
• SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

Treasury futures have traded sharply lower today and this has resulted in a break of support at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach of this support highlights a stronger reversal and most likely, the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.