TURKEY: GDP Expands 3.0% Y/Y in 4Q, Above Analyst Expectations

10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are generally biased tighter, driven by this morning’s ASML-led rally in European equities.

• The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has fully retraced the widening seen into yesterday’s close, now 2bps tighter at ~107.5bps. Yesterday’s widening came on news that PM Meloni has been placed under investigation in a case relating to the repatriation of a Libyan police officer.
• OAT/Bund has also tightened ~0.5bps to ~72.5bps, despite reports of a fresh rift between the Socialists and the Government following comments from PM Bayrou on migration. A deterioration of relations between the groups may threaten the chances of Bayrou getting his 2025 budget through the National Assembly.
• Spanish flash Q4 GDP was stronger-than-expected at 0.8% Q/Q (vs  0.6% cons, 0.8% prior), but did not generate any material outperformance in the Spanish curve relative to peers.

• RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21  
• RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.8421/8474 High Jan 27 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8372 @ 08:11GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 0.8364 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8357 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
• SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31

EURGBP continues to trade lower this week, extending the correction that started on Jan 20. A bull cycle is intact and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant short-term uptrend. The 20-day EMA at 0.8387 has been breached and this exposes 0.8357, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. A break of it would resume the uptrend.

Big move in the Tech index, way past pre DeepSeek's collapse.

(chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).