TURKEY: GDP Expands 3.0% Y/Y in 4Q, Above Analyst Expectations
Feb-28 08:21
- Turkey’s GDP rose 3.0% y/y (Est: +2.5%) in 4Q versus a revised +2.2% in 3Q, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 1.7% q/q (Est: +1.5%) compared to a revised -0.1% prior, tipping the economy out of a technical recession. Meanwhile, Turkey's adjusted unemployment rate was 8.4% in January, marginally lower to the 8.5% recorded in December.
- Citing “experts” who have evaluated the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s 25% customs duty on EU products, Ekonomi say the most important risk for Turkey is loss of exports due to a contraction in the EU. They therefore note the importance of updating the Customs Union agreement as soon as possible.
- Turkish Exporters Assembly Chairman Mustafa Gultepe says the widening gap between inflation and exchange rate is slowing down exporters’ speed, Ekonomi report. “In an environment where inputs such as energy and labor are constantly rising, there is no chance of sustaining the economy with fixed output,” Gultepe says.
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EGBS: Spreads To Bunds Tighten On ASML-led Equity Rally
Jan-29 08:16
10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are generally biased tighter, driven by this morning’s ASML-led rally in European equities.
- The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has fully retraced the widening seen into yesterday’s close, now 2bps tighter at ~107.5bps. Yesterday’s widening came on news that PM Meloni has been placed under investigation in a case relating to the repatriation of a Libyan police officer.
- OAT/Bund has also tightened ~0.5bps to ~72.5bps, despite reports of a fresh rift between the Socialists and the Government following comments from PM Bayrou on migration. A deterioration of relations between the groups may threaten the chances of Bayrou getting his 2025 budget through the National Assembly.
- Spanish flash Q4 GDP was stronger-than-expected at 0.8% Q/Q (vs 0.6% cons, 0.8% prior), but did not generate any material outperformance in the Spanish curve relative to peers.
EURGBP TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA
Jan-29 08:12
- RES 4: 0.8545 High Aug 21
- RES 3: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8421/8474 High Jan 27 / 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8372 @ 08:11GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 0.8364 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8357 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8284 Low Jan 8
- SUP 4: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
EURGBP continues to trade lower this week, extending the correction that started on Jan 20. A bull cycle is intact and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant short-term uptrend. The 20-day EMA at 0.8387 has been breached and this exposes 0.8357, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. A break of it would resume the uptrend.
EQUITIES: ASML is up 11% on the Open, LVHM falls
Jan-29 08:09
Big move in the Tech index, way past pre DeepSeek's collapse.
(chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
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