POWER: German April Power Rises to Highest in Over Three Weeks

SONIA futures lightly outperform Euribor counterparts, but are nonetheless pressured by this morning’s core FI pullback. Futures are -0.5 to -5.0 ticks through the blues at typing, with Z6 piercing last Thursday’s low of 96.105.

• Fallout from weekend speculation around a US-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine appears to be factoring into the selloff in core EGBs.
• BoE-dated OIS price 54bps of easing, up to 2.5bps more hawkish than Friday’s close. The next full 25bp cut is priced through the June gathering (29bps of easing priced).
• Over the weekend, the FT reported that the OBR’s assumptions around UK productivity growth may be too optimistic, which could force the Chancellor into more fiscal tightening in the coming years. However, the report offers no concrete details on potential policy changes.
• The Government is also assessing the case for tariffs on some US products if President Trump’s 25% aluminium and steel levies are implemented next month.
• This week’s UK calendar is headlined by the January inflation and December/January labour market reports, with the February flash PMIs also due on Friday.
• It is debatable whether inflation or PMI data are the primary focus right now (official labour market data seems to have fallen behind these in the pecking order but still has potential to cause large market moves on surprises).
• MNI’s full inflation/labour market preview will be released later today. 

• MNI: SWITZERLAND SPORT-ADJUSTED Q4 FLASH GDP 0.4% Q/Q

Estox 50: -0.03%, Dax: +0.14%, CAC: +0.06%, FTSE -0.05%, SMI +0.51%.