POWER: German April Power Rises to Highest in Over Three Weeks
Mar-19 08:06
German April power base load is trading higher today, closely tracking gains in EU gas prices, while forecasts for wind output remain mixed.
- Germany Base Power APR 25 up 3% at 83.55 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.6% at 72.47 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 3.8% at 42.285 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 up 8.9% at -11.9464 EUR/MWh
- TTF rallies back to levels from late last week after a call between the US and Russia presidents failed to result in a ceasefire agreement. Gains are limited by warm weather through the coming weekend and recovering Norwegian gas supplies. Russia’s president Putin only agreed to limit attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and an end to the war and sanctions is likely some way off.
- EUAs Dec25 is trading higher with support from a rebound in EU gas prices, ahead of today’s COT data. The next Polish EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until 26 March, before briefly turning cooler until 28 March, after which temperatures will rise back above normal.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 10C on Thursday, up from 7C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 6.8C.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 5.38GW during base load on Thursday, from 4.56GW on Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast to fall to 23.23GW during peak load on Thursday, down from 25.78GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 57.08GW on Thursday, from 57.56GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to edge up to 40.66GWh/h on Thursday, from 40.06GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised slightly higher on the day to end at 0.00GWh on 2 April, from -25GWh a day earlier.
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STIR: SONIAs Lightly Outperform Euribor, 53bps of BOE Easing Priced Through '25
Feb-17 08:05
SONIA futures lightly outperform Euribor counterparts, but are nonetheless pressured by this morning’s core FI pullback. Futures are -0.5 to -5.0 ticks through the blues at typing, with Z6 piercing last Thursday’s low of 96.105.
- Fallout from weekend speculation around a US-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine appears to be factoring into the selloff in core EGBs.
- BoE-dated OIS price 54bps of easing, up to 2.5bps more hawkish than Friday’s close. The next full 25bp cut is priced through the June gathering (29bps of easing priced).
- Over the weekend, the FT reported that the OBR’s assumptions around UK productivity growth may be too optimistic, which could force the Chancellor into more fiscal tightening in the coming years. However, the report offers no concrete details on potential policy changes.
- The Government is also assessing the case for tariffs on some US products if President Trump’s 25% aluminium and steel levies are implemented next month.
- This week’s UK calendar is headlined by the January inflation and December/January labour market reports, with the February flash PMIs also due on Friday.
- It is debatable whether inflation or PMI data are the primary focus right now (official labour market data seems to have fallen behind these in the pecking order but still has potential to cause large market moves on surprises).
- MNI’s full inflation/labour market preview will be released later today.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 4.434 | -2.1 |
| May-25 | 4.243 | -21.2 |
| Jun-25 | 4.166 | -28.8 |
| Aug-25 | 4.020 | -43.4 |
| Sep-25 | 3.992 | -46.2 |
| Nov-25 | 3.928 | -52.7 |
| Dec-25 | 3.917 | -53.7 |
| Feb-26 | 3.892 | -56.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
MNI: SWITZERLAND SPORT-ADJUSTED Q4 FLASH GDP 0.4% Q/Q
Feb-17 08:02
- MNI: SWITZERLAND SPORT-ADJUSTED Q4 FLASH GDP 0.4% Q/Q
EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Feb-17 07:56
Estox 50: -0.03%, Dax: +0.14%, CAC: +0.06%, FTSE -0.05%, SMI +0.51%.
