POWER: German, French DA Prices Fall, DE May Narrow Premium to France for 5 Feb
Spot prices in Germany and France dropped from the previous session, driven by higher wind generation, reducing their residual loads. Looking ahead, Germany’s day-ahead price may continue to narrow its premium to France for 5 February delivery amid higher wind load factors in Germany and stronger consumption in France compared to the former.
- The German day-ahead spot settled at €142.42/MWh from €154.51/MWh on the previous day.
- The French day-ahead spot cleared at €141.07/MWh from €150.65/MWh on the previous day.
- Germany was at a €1.35/MWh premium from a €3.86/MWh premium in the previous session.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 10.05GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 3.21GW on Monday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then be at just 12.00GW, or a 16% load factor the next day – which could drop prices further
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 60.19GW on Tuesday, up from 59.16GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 2C on Tuesday, up from 0.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 3.3C, according to Bloomberg.
- Power demand in Germany will then be at 60.89GW on 5 February.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 44.7GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 50.96GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
- In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to increase to 2.95GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 1.57GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then be at 2.61GW, or a 11% load factor on 5 February.
- Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 69.41GW on Tuesday, up from 69.1GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 1.6C on Tuesday, up from 0.9C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 4.5C, according to Bloomberg.
- French demand will then be at 68.16GW the next day.
- Residual load in France is forecast to edge down to 64.95GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 65.17GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
- Nuclear availability in France decreased to 80% of capacity as of Monday morning, down from 85% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF’s new 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor will be offline two days longer until 5 February 23:00CET, remit data showed
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
