POWER: German Front-Month Power Edges Lower
The German March power base-load contract is edging lower with losses in the energy complex and an upward revision in forecasts for wind output. German spot power is expected to decline with forecasts for higher wind output on the day.
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 1% at 104.12 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 80.67 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 1.3% at 53.095 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 10.3% at -17.7027 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is trading down from the peak of €54.805/MWh yesterday. Healthy LNG imports are set against cool weather and Norway outages this week as the markets assess the impact on global LNG flows amid increasing US trade tensions with China
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are extending yesterday’s losses, albeit trading within Monday’s range this morning, with potential US tariffs on Europe and losses in EU gas prices adding downside pressure. The next EU ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 13.06GW during base load on Wednesday, up from 11.39GW on Tuesday. Wind output in Germany has been revised higher for next week with output reaching up to 54% load factors according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will decline later this week to remain below the seasonal normal through the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 4.1C on Wednesday, up from 1.5C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 3.4C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise 61.08GW on Wednesday, up from 60.84GW on Tuesday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 42.96GWh/h on Wednesday, down from 45.19GWh/h on Tuesday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised lower to end at -131GWh on 18 February, compared with -20GWh a day earlier.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
