POWER: German March Power Tracks Slight Weekly Decline
Germany March power is tracking a small weekly net decrease of below 1% with downside from losses in EUAs weighed against forecasts for colder and less windy weather and small weekly gains in EU gas prices.
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 1.1% at 105.99 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 81.57 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.9% at 54.035 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 7.3% at -17.2193 EUR/MWh
- EU ETS December 2025 is tracking a weekly net decline of around 3% with the potential of US tariffs on Europe and weak economic data out of Europe weighing on sentiment. The next German ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline to 19.12GW on Saturday and to 10.66GW on Sunday during base-load hours, compared with 29.46GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest 2-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures mean temperatures will remain in line with the average for the remainder of this week before falling below the average. However, the latest monthly forecast suggested mean temperatures have been revised higher for the second half of February and March.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at 4.1C on Saturday and at 3.4C on Sunday, from 3.5C on Friday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 53.44GW on Saturday and to 49.9GW on Sunday, down from 61.96GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to edge down to 25.68GWh/h on Saturday before rising to 31.28GWh/h on Sunday, compared with 26.57GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher to end at -150GWh on 21 February, down from -203GWh a day earlier.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.4676 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4360 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 1.4326/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4163 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4326, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4163, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6388 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6269/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6227 @ 08:00 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6269, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6388.
STIR: SFRZ6/U7 Lifted
SFRZ6/U7 paper paid 6.5 on ~6.3K, initially taken bid over with a further ~3.2K trading since. Market left 6.0/6.5 last.
